Description
This page contains the results for the effects of spill (as the
volume of spill) on key movements. As a reminder for how spill (volume)
is included in the model, spill (volume) has an effect on every mainstem
downstream movement. The same parameter is shared by all fish of the
same DPS/rear type combination. The only time when spill (volume)
doesn’t have an affect on downstream movement is when a fish is in a
post-overshoot state during the winter months (January/February/March),
in which case it instead receives the effect of winter spill days
fallback. On this page, I show how spill volume affects en-route
fallback throughout the basin.
Calculation
For each dataset (combination of DPS and rear type), the following
steps were run:
- Extract the median covariate values experienced by all fish in the
dataset (for temperature). These median values are used to estimate the
probability of movement.
- Create a sequence of volume of spill from 0 to the maximimum value
experience by fish in the dataset.
- Evaluate the probability of movement at each of those spill
values.
If a tributary has both a hatchery and natural origin population,
they are shown on the same plot. The proportion of fish that exhibited
the movement at each spill volume (in 5 kcfs bins) is shown as bubble.
However, please note that because spill parameters are shared between
fish of the same DPS, the actual data used to estimate each of the
parameters is more than is shown for any individual origin. This is also
why specific origins will have an estimated effect of spill, even when
there is little or no data from that specific origin. Individual origins
do however have different movement probabilities, as the overall
probability of movement is affected by the relative strength of the
predictor compared to the predictors for other movements (which may have
origin-specific parameters).
Middle Columbia
For the Middle Columbia, we only show plots for the effect of spill
volume on fallback at Bonneville Dam.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Deschutes River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for John Day River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Fifteenmile Creek Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Umatilla River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Yakima River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Walla Walla River Steelhead.
Upper Columbia
For Upper Columbia Steelhead, we will show en-route fallback at
Bonneville, McNary, Priest Rapids, and Rock Island Dams.
Bonneville
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Wenatchee River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Entiat River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Okanogan River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Methow River Steelhead.
McNary
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Wenatchee River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Entiat River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Okanogan River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Methow River Steelhead.
Priest Rapids
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Priest
Rapids Dam for Wenatchee River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Priest
Rapids Dam for Okanogan River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Priest
Rapids Dam for Methow River Steelhead.
Rock Island
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Rock
Island Dam for Wenatchee River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Rock
Island Dam for Okanogan River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Rock
Island Dam for Methow River Steelhead.
Snake River
For Snake Steelhead, we will show en-route fallback at Bonneville,
McNary, and Ice Harbor Dams.
Bonneville
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Tucannon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Asotin Creek Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Clearwater River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Salmon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Grande Ronde River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Bonneville
Dam for Imnaha River Steelhead.
McNary
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Tucannon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Asotin Creek Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Clearwater River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Salmon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Grande Ronde River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at McNary Dam
for Imnaha River Steelhead.
Ice Harbor
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Tucannon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Asotin Creek Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Clearwater River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Salmon River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Grande Ronde River Steelhead.
Effect of spill volume on fallback at Ice Harbor
Dam for Imnaha River Steelhead.